As numerous TikTok refugees flooded into Xiaohongshu, the US Supreme Court upheld the federal court's ruling with a 9-0 actual result at 10am local time on January 17th.
The final verdict is like a heavy hammer, announcing that TikTok is facing an unfavorable situation in this survival battle that has lasted for several years. TikTok, which has 170 million users in the US market, will be unable to download on US app stores starting from January 19, 2025 at the earliest.
TikTok has also issued a statement on its official website stating that the Biden administration and the Department of Justice have not provided clear assurances to TikTok's service providers that they will not enforce bans, which are essential for maintaining the continued use of the TikTok software by over 170 million American users. TikTok hopes that the Biden administration and the Department of Justice will immediately provide a clear statement stating that they will not enforce the upcoming ban, otherwise they will have to suspend operations on the 19th.
However, some industry insiders have pointed out that TikTok's ultimate fate still needs to wait for a clear directive from Trump after he takes office. It is reported that TikTok's on screen ads have been sold out, and there may be a brief surge in traffic (due to the hot topic in recent days and the platform bidding farewell before shutdown). In addition, it is speculated that TikTok may also shut down for a short period of time before reopening, and everything is still unknown.
For cross-border sellers, TikTok Shop has developed rapidly in the United States and has become an important sales platform and channel. In the first half of 2024, TikTok actively expanded its business in the United States, not only increasing its recruitment efforts for sellers, but also gradually relaxing the entry conditions, even allowing Amazon sellers to enter with "zero transaction volume". It is reported that TikTok Shop's GMV in the United States will be around 1.75 billion US dollars in 2023, with a target of 17.5 billion US dollars in 2024, a direct increase of 9 times.
In addition, many businesses not only rely on TikTok to directly sell their products, but also use the platform to drive the growth of other sales channels. In addition to its e-commerce functions, TikTok itself can also drive product sales based on trends and recommendations from internet celebrities. Therefore, if TikTok is banned, it will cause huge losses for many brands and sellers.
According to foreign media reports, as the ban on TikTok approaches, many brands and sellers who rely on the platform to boost sales are increasingly concerned. It is expected that in the first month after the ban is implemented, brands and sellers may lose $1.3 billion in revenue.
It is obvious that with the closure of TikTok in the United States, small and medium-sized enterprises and sellers in the country will face enormous survival pressure. According to reports, many sellers have suspended their TikTok Shop plans, waiting for the Supreme Court's ruling. Some sellers have also stopped sending free samples to TikTok creators or postponed shipping products to US warehouses in uncertain circumstances. Some merchants have requested to include exemption clauses in their contracts with TikTok to address the risk of its possible closure.
In addition, in response to the current situation, some large sellers have also begun to transfer their products to other platforms such as Temu, Shein, etc., or are considering doing business in other countries. However, despite the unique features of social commerce tools on the market such as Instagram Live, Amazon Live, and YouTube Shopping, it is still unknown whether these alternative platforms can provide the same user stickiness and market influence.
At the just concluded 2025 Hugo Conference, multiple industry insiders expressed different opinions on the potential impact of TikTok's ban. Professor Christopher A. Pissarides, the winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics, believes that TikTok is in an open market where we can find alternatives, especially when there is a ban, and it will not become disadvantageous. We do not need to worry excessively.
According to He Ding, founder and CEO of Qian'an Technology, TikTok is currently affected by uncontrollable political factors, and traffic diversion is actually a shift in consumer attention. For sellers, they can only layout on other platforms. Qian'an Technology also operates in the Xiaohongshu channel. Previously, it mainly targeted the domestic market, but now it seems that there is an opportunity to shift towards international channels.
As a brand seller, Qian'an Technology has been trying to reduce the proportion of Amazon's revenue and achieve multi-channel development in recent years. In 2024, Qian'an Technology has also achieved certain results in its offline channel layout. We hope to enter more offline markets, which is also a way to deal with difficulties encountered by a single channel.
Liao Xinhui, a senior practitioner in cross-border e-commerce for 20 years, pointed out that the best strategy to deal with uncertainty is to consider various uncertainties and avoid various "black swan" events. Layout in developing countries such as South America is part of the strategy, and the same effort must be given priority to deploying countries and markets with relatively higher certainty. Even if everyone's business model is different, whether it's making product models or channel models, we can consider this aspect.
Tang Run, founder of TK Big Coffee, believes that if sellers already have good products and models, they can continue to cultivate other channels. "It is a fact that short video interest content is popular worldwide, and Tik Tok's commercialization will become stronger and more globalized, with the United States being just one of them. If you have good product innovation, it can shine on any e-commerce platform, including platform e-commerce, independent websites, private domains, and other social media platforms for sales and exposure. Mastering this ability, whether TikTok is banned or substitutes appear, it cannot stop you