Although the cancellation of T86 is an undeniable fact and efforts have been made to implement it, it is absolutely impossible to strictly follow the rules and operate it seamlessly!!!
Firstly, let's take a look at the fastest reacting USPS, which issued a notice to stop accepting packages from China and Hong Kong.
But everyone should know that the tax exemption for T86 refers to products originating in China, not packages from China.
Secondly, it is very difficult to conduct strict inspections on packages originating from China. The customs inspection of packages originating from China in the past was very simple. When the barcode on the postal waybill is scanned, the first two CN characters are collected by China Post, and HK characters are collected by Hong Kong Post; Private courier companies also have registered sender addresses. Post offices and courier companies already need to scan barcodes to track packages, which is a practice with almost no additional cost.
However, if the origin of the product is China, it would be very troublesome. You cannot conduct targeted blacklist checks based on the physical and chemical properties of the product. It's simple, a piece of clothing, a bag, you can't quickly identify its origin with the naked eye or even AI. Moreover, many packages do not necessarily originate from the country of origin of the product, which creates a loophole where as long as there is transit and transshipment trade, you have room to operate. I can put a Vietnamese made product on a China Post stamp in China and send it to the United States, so that the package comes from China; You can also attach a Vietnamese postal stamp to a Chinese made product in Vietnam and send it to the United States, so that the package comes from Vietnam
Thirdly, it is precisely for this reason that although T86 refers to packages of goods originating in China, the final landing execution is from Chinese packages, otherwise the overall clearance efficiency of US customs will be greatly compromised. The US Customs was already operating at overload in the T86 situation. From 139 million items in fiscal year 2015 to over 1 billion items in fiscal year 2023, an increase of over 600%, a report from the US House of Representatives stated that packages from Temu and Shein accounted for one-third of them. In the fiscal year 2024, the number of "small duty-free" goods has once again risen to over 1.36 billion pieces.
In the situation where the T86 policy has been cancelled and fast customs clearance is not possible, it is necessary to verify the origin of each package. Even three shifts and 007 US Customs cannot handle it. Therefore, choosing to impose a one size fits all tax on packages from China is currently the fastest way to land, which also gives Chinese cross-border enterprises a breathing space.
Overall. Although Trump's policy is swift and decisive, with the fundamental intention of cutting off China's cross-border e-commerce, it lacks detailed operational rules, reflecting a rough implementation level, and may not have a good way to adjust in the short term.
However, although there is still room for maneuver, it does not mean that the overseas model of Chinese cross-border e-commerce enterprises can continue to be used. Firstly, in terms of time, the gap in policy implementation will gradually be filled; Another reason is that there are still certain costs and risks involved in transit or transshipment trade operations. US Customs does not simply ignore inspections. Once discovered, if the actual imported goods do not match the declared documents, they may be seized by Customs, resulting in seizure, fines, and even violating US laws on false statements, constituting a criminal offense of defrauding the federal government.
So! The first wave has already hit our feet, and it is foreseeable what kind of turbulence will follow. It is not too late to improve internal strength, standardize operations, transfer risks and other layouts!